The Power Paradox: Why Raw Watts Don’t Tell the Whole Story in Cycling
Cycling is a sport obsessed with numbers. Watts, kilograms, gradients—these metrics are the currency of the peloton. But if you take a step back and think about it, the story of cycling’s greatest riders isn’t just about raw power. It’s about how they use it, where they use it, and the psychological chess match that unfolds on every climb, cobblestone, and time trial. Personally, I think we’ve been looking at Functional Threshold Power (FTP) all wrong. It’s not just a number; it’s a lens into a rider’s strategy, weaknesses, and potential.
The Myth of the 500W Rider
One thing that immediately stands out is the fascination with riders whose FTP starts with the number 5. It’s almost mythical—like breaking the sound barrier. But here’s the thing: most of the best cyclists in the world hover around 450W. What many people don’t realize is that the real game-changer isn’t the raw number; it’s the weight-to-power ratio (w/kg). A rider like Tadej Pogačar, with his estimated 450W at 65kg, achieves a mind-boggling 6.9w/kg. That’s not just impressive—it’s borderline superhuman.
What makes this particularly fascinating is how Pogačar’s power translates into performance. His record-breaking climb on Alpe d’Huez wasn’t just about watts; it was about sustaining that power for 35 minutes at the end of a grueling stage. In my opinion, this is where the narrative around FTP falls short. It’s not just about what you can do fresh; it’s about what you can do when your legs are screaming for mercy.
The Vingegaard Dilemma: Power vs. Aerodynamics
Jonas Vingegaard is the perfect counterpoint to Pogačar. His FTP of 410W is impressive, but it’s his ability to push 6.8w/kg for extended periods that makes him a threat. Yet, there’s a catch. Vingegaard’s raw power deficit becomes a liability on flatter terrain and in time trials. When Pogačar is cruising at 550W in crosswinds, Vingegaard is pushing into his anaerobic zone—unsustainable and exhausting.
From my perspective, this raises a deeper question: Can Vingegaard close the gap? Rumors suggest he’s gained a few kilos in 2026 to boost his raw power. But here’s the irony: by doing so, he risks losing his w/kg advantage on steep climbs. It’s a classic trade-off, and one that highlights the complexity of cycling. Raw power isn’t everything; it’s about finding the right balance for your strengths.
Remco Evenepoel: The Aero Advantage
If you’re looking for a rider who defies the FTP narrative, it’s Remco Evenepoel. His estimated FTP of 425W is lower than Pogačar’s, and his w/kg is below Vingegaard’s. Yet, he’s consistently one of the fastest riders in the world. Why? Aerodynamics. Evenepoel’s ability to slice through the air allows him to build gaps on flatter terrain, even with fewer watts.
A detail that I find especially interesting is how Evenepoel’s strategy hinges on his aero efficiency. He doesn’t need to match Pogačar’s raw power because he can attack on descents and flats, where his position on the bike gives him an edge. This isn’t just about physics; it’s about psychology. Evenepoel knows his opponents can’t chase him down, and that mental advantage is just as powerful as any wattage number.
The Cobblestone Equation: Where Raw Power Reigns
On the cobblestones of Flanders and Roubaix, the rules change. Here, raw power matters more than w/kg. Mathieu van der Poel, with his estimated FTP of 470W+, is a force to be reckoned with. His win at the 2019 Amstel Gold Race wasn’t just about sustained power; it was about explosive bursts on rough terrain.
What this really suggests is that cycling is a sport of nuance. On cobblestones, you can’t hide behind aerodynamics or lightweight frames. It’s brute force and bike handling skills. Pogačar might be able to outclimb Van der Poel, but on the cobbles, they’re on equal footing. This is why the Classics are so unpredictable—they level the playing field in ways that grand tours never can.
The Next Generation: Del Toro and Seixas
If there’s one thing that excites me about the future of cycling, it’s the rise of Isaac del Toro and Paul Seixas. At 22 and 19, respectively, they’re already posting FTPs around 410W. But what’s truly remarkable is their rate of improvement. While Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel are likely near their physical peaks, Del Toro and Seixas are still evolving.
This raises a deeper question: What happens when these young riders hit their prime? Will they surpass the current greats? Personally, I think it’s only a matter of time. Cycling is a sport where experience and maturity matter as much as raw talent. Del Toro and Seixas are already among the best, and they’re just getting started.
The Takeaway: Power is Just the Beginning
If you take a step back and think about it, FTP is just one piece of the puzzle. It’s how riders use their power, where they deploy it, and how they adapt to their weaknesses that defines their success. Pogačar’s raw strength, Vingegaard’s endurance, Evenepoel’s aero efficiency, and Van der Poel’s explosiveness—each rider has a unique approach to the same problem.
In my opinion, the real beauty of cycling lies in this diversity. It’s not just about who has the highest FTP; it’s about who can outsmart, outlast, and outmaneuver their opponents. So the next time you hear someone brag about their FTP, remember: it’s not the number that matters—it’s what you do with it.
